Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923a…e723 crypto 708 markets active 17h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-1%) realized −$82 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%349W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$778
7 days−$743
14 days−$786
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$679
sports 3% −$28
other 2% −$90
politics 0% −$16
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -11.1% -19.5% 44% 44% -32.6%
≤30d 628 +0.7% -8.9% 51% 51% -13.0%
≤90d 700 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 49% -13.4%
all 700 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 49% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 49% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 48% -21.7%
15% -26.8% 48% -29.3%
20% -33.9% 47% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses349 / 351
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)700 / 708
History coverage50d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $110 $92 −$18 (-16%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $110 $86 −$24 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+53%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$121 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $124 +$106 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $114 −$104 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $135 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$32 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$34 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$27 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$13 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $94 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $94 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 24h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 24h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $124 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $74 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.43 · official $403.43 (match) · 2526 history records