Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923b…9541 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$205 (-1%) realized −$183 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%179W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day165.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 191 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 191 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 0% -10.7%
all 191 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 0% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$30 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses179 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage2d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day165.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 99¢ 48¢ $43 $21 −$22 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.86 · official $20.86 (match) · 588 history records