Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923c…6d03 crypto 858 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,655 (-4%) realized −$2,655 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate64%546W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$376est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days+$549
14 days+$772
30 days+$772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$165
other 29% −$1,625
sports 21% −$1,754
world 1% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.3% -4.8% 57% 36% +6.2%
≤30d 26 +11.6% +0.9% 69% 38% +6.1%
≤90d 858 -2.9% -12.2% 64% 22% -14.5%
all 858 -2.9% -12.2% 64% 22% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 22% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 14% -22.7%
15% -28.3% 10% -30.1%
20% -35.3% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$47 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses546 / 312
Est. fees paid−$376
Open positions0
Markets (closed)858 / 858
History coverage74d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 858 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $249 −$85 -34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $260 −$59 -23%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $503 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $33 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $28 −$4 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $88 −$25 -29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $245 +$339 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $400 +$143 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $756 +$25 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$43 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 +$20 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $450 +$244 +54%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $158 +$12 +8%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $42 +$8 +19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $34 +$11 +31%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $99 +$51 +52%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $187 +$13 +7%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $109 +$91 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $132 +$37 +28%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $179 +$5 +3%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $115 −$4 -3%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $126 +$3 +2%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5) Jun 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $100 −$3 -4%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 17 $44 −$43 -97%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 17 $53 −$53 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score May 17 $181 −$181 -100%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score May 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score May 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $221 −$108 -49%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 16 $20 +$82 +413%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $108 +$122 +113%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $119 −$13 -10%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $110 +$121 +109%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $103 +$136 +132%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? May 16 $34 −$33 -96%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $323 −$280 -87%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris FC end in a draw? May 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? May 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $100 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $201 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $156 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $17 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $49 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $4 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $43 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $23 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $59 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Scotland 51¢ $510 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $90 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $200 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $213 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $63 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $19 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3398 history records