Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923d…c325 crypto 243 markets active 7h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%93W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.9% -36.6% 31% 25% -36.4%
≤30d 28 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 29% -24.3%
≤90d 243 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 32% -14.1%
all 243 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 32% -14.1%
10% -22.7% 26% -22.3%
15% -30.2% 19% -29.8%
20% -37.0% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses93 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage73d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3PM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 4AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6PM ET Apr 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records