Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923e…4bcb other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$18
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$14
other 22% −$25
sports 20% −$18
crypto 8% −$6
world 7% +$15
culture 5% −$4
finance 4% −$7
tech 3% +$2
economics 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 61 -0.8% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 116 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -9.9%
all 140 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage107d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $62 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $229 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $67 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $169 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $55 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $218 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 02 $59 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $334 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $153 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $205 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 2h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 13h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 13h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 13h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 94¢ $48 14h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $20 22h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $29 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $48 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 27h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 33h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $66 34h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $66 41h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 42h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will South Africa reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $66 2d
Will South Africa reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $41 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $42 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $24 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $46 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.30 · official $61.30 (match) · 540 history records