Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x924a…77af crypto 89 markets active 3d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-2%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%58W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$258
14 days−$219
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$251
other 1% −$10
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.9% -6.9% 68% 68% -20.3%
≤30d 89 +8.4% -2.0% 65% 58% -13.0%
≤90d 89 +8.4% -2.0% 65% 58% -13.0%
all 89 +8.4% -2.0% 65% 58% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 58% -13.0%
10% -11.3% 48% -21.3%
15% -19.9% 34% -28.9%
20% -27.8% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$65 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses58 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage15d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$30 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$90 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $162 +$31 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $48 −$36 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $122 +$39 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $94 +$26 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $87 −$59 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $124 −$43 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $147 +$33 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$49 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $153 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records