Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x924b…fda2 world 86 markets active 2d ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%19W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
other 18% −$1
politics 16% −$1
sports 10% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 24 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -3.2% -12.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses19 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage273d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 25 $173 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $60 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $78 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $41 +$3 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $30 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $63 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $62 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $34 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $33 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $24 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $6 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $22 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $32 9d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $14 9d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $13 9d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $27 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $32 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records