Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x924d…d117 sports 190 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$703 (+11%) realized +$670 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%90W / 97L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$373
14 days−$167
30 days+$636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$856
other 11% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 40% -25.3%
≤30d 187 +14.5% +3.6% 48% 48% -5.5%
≤90d 187 +14.5% +3.6% 48% 48% -5.5%
all 187 +14.5% +3.6% 48% 48% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 48% -5.5%
10% -6.3% 46% -14.5%
15% -15.4% 42% -22.8%
20% -23.7% 38% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$28 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$670
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses90 / 97
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 190
History coverage26d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $43 $53 +$10 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ $9 $27 +$18 (+195%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $93 −$91 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $74 +$18 +24%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $46 −$26 -57%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $46 −$23 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$49 +93%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $14 +$49 +340%
Noni Madueke: 2+ shots Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -23%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 −$107 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 +$47 +48%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $101 +$45 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$14 +74%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 +$116 +192%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $86 +$68 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 +$56 +79%
Donyell Malen: 1+ assists Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $100 +$70 +70%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $38 +$100 +267%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $131 −$129 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $60 +$33 +55%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $27 +$20 +73%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $3 +$5 +197%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $59 +$18 +30%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $32 +$36 +114%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $93 40h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $74 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $25 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $25 2d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 43¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 99¢ $63 2d
Noni Madueke: 2+ shots BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 22¢ $14 2d
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 99¢ $35 2d
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 85¢ $30 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ $30 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $7 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 38¢ $19 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 45¢ $22 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $39 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $108 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 2d
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 28¢ $20 2d
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev BUY Atmane 44¢ $22 2d
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 58¢ $101 2d
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $146 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $99 2d
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 69¢ $101 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 30¢ $65 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 31¢ $48 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.29 · official $125.29 (match) · 357 history records