Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x924d…ae05 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$19
crypto 13% +$3
sports 3% +$6
economics 1% −$6
world 1% −$2
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -1.8% -11.1% 78% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage560d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $23 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $5,495 −$6 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4000 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $21 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $9 −$5 -50%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Dec 20 $32 −$4 -14%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? Dec 20 $38 −$7 -18%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Dec 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 17 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Dec 17 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Dec 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 121d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 123d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 150d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 182d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $46 183d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $25 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 243d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 274d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 274d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $44 304d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $35 335d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 363d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.99 · official $76.99 (match) · 119 history records