Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

92 0x9253…0bae sports 18 markets active 3h ago coverage 63d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,415 (+37%) realized +$5,791 · open −$376

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$807per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$95est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$4,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$253

7 days+$3,361

14 days+$5,782

30 days+$5,782

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-4.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+7.9%	-2.4%	58%	50%	+37.5%
≤30d	13	+13.6%	+2.8%	62%	54%	+46.1%
≤90d	14	+5.5%	-4.5%	57%	50%	+42.7%
all	14	+5.5%	-4.5%	57%	50%	+42.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.5%	50%	+42.7%
10%	-13.7%	43%	+29.0%
15%	-22.0%	43%	+16.6%
20%	-29.6%	43%	+5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -25% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$791 vs −$128 · ×6.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.21 per $1 lost it wins $8.21

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage

Net worth$4,374

Realized+$5,791

Unrealized−$376

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$95

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage63d

Avg bet$807

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$3,000	$2,625	−$375 (-12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1,000	$976	−$24 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$500	$520	+$20 (+4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$250	$253	+$3 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$151	−$150	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1,959	+$403	+21%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1,102	+$94	+9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$205	−$9	-4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$203	−$200	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$203	+$197	+97%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$51	+$26	+52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$68	+$39	+58%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 14	$812	+$731	+90%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$101	−$88	-86%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$1,521	+$2,417	+159%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$2,934	+$2,420	+82%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	May 07	$225	−$225	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$151	3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3,090	3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,362	20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	95¢	$1,001	20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	82¢	$503	20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$302	20h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,030	20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$152	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$513	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,196	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$254	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	97¢	$1,001	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$10	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$100	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$1	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$4	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	8¢	$80	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	47¢	$203	4d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	BUY No	65¢	$51	5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	50¢	$203	5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	100¢	$107	5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,542	5d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	8¢	$14	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	57¢	$247	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	35¢	$510	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,374.13 · official $4,374.13 (match) · 77 history records