Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
92 0x9254…3af8 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,114 (+50%) realized +$5,710 · open −$596
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$615
7 days+$5,016
14 days+$5,016
30 days+$5,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$3,549
crypto 17% −$1,008
sports 13% +$2,079
weather 8% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +55.8% +41.0% 23% 23% +47.3%
≤30d 48 +55.8% +41.0% 23% 23% +47.3%
≤90d 48 +55.8% +41.0% 23% 23% +47.3%
all 48 +55.8% +41.0% 23% 23% +47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.0% 23% +47.3%
10% +27.5% 23% +33.2%
15% +15.1% 23% +20.4%
20% +3.9% 21% +8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$990 vs −$159 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,604
Realized+$5,710
Unrealized−$596
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage10d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $800 $886 +$86 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $500 $713 +$213 (+43%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $400 $2 −$398 (-99%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Japan 25¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $205 +$76 +37%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $205 +$1,333 +650%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $163 −$159 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $133 −$130 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 21 $257 −$257 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $257 −$257 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $154 −$154 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $257 −$257 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 21 $206 −$206 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 21 $226 −$226 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $205 +$1,461 +712%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $206 +$346 +168%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 +$2,017 +982%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $256 +$1,133 +442%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $180 −$179 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $207 −$200 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$32 +1164%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$424 +414%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $257 +$1,146 +446%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $206 +$2,294 +1116%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 +$628 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $307 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 23¢ $281 54m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $163 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $133 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 11h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 11h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $257 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $257 15h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $226 41h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 41h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $553 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $256 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $206 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $207 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,603.61 · official $1,603.61 (match) · 219 history records