Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9254…cc0a other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+10%) realized +$24 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$5
sports 19% +$4
world 7% $0
crypto 7% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 36% +11.5%
≤30d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 36% +11.5%
≤90d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 36% +11.5%
all 11 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 36% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 36% +11.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 36% +0.9%
15% -24.6% 36% -8.9%
20% -31.9% 27% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 62¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +223%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +118%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 8m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 8m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 31m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 49m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 49m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.51 · official $46.51 (match) · 45 history records