Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9256…2e8b finance 195 markets active 168d ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$133,110 (+7%) realized +$151,470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate70%167W / 72L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$9,411per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,878
7 days−$11,878
14 days−$11,878
30 days−$11,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$36,850
finance 15% +$18,249
politics 13% +$88,179
crypto 4% +$2,873
tech 2% +$16,075
economics 0% +$1,100
world 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 37 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 37 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 231 +56.3% +41.4% 69% 34% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.4% 34% -4.6%
10% +27.9% 26% -13.7%
15% ← realistic here +15.5% 21% -22.0%
20% +4.2% 17% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,345) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +143% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,058 vs −$350 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.01 per $1 lost it wins $7.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151,470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses167 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 195
History coverage55d
Avg bet$9,411
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will VVD win 18 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary el Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Will PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary electio Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dave’s Hot Chicken be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on No Jun 15 $0 +$2 —%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will New Social Contract win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherl Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end before October 15? Jun 15 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the New Social Contract win the second most seats in the 2025 Net Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FS KKR Capital (FSK) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the Forum for Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Net Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $2,130 −$2,130 -100%
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $698 −$720 -103%
Will Denk win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary ele Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Volt Netherlands win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22? Jun 15 $-4 +$4 —%
Will McDonald's be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Party for the Animals win the second most seats in the 2025 N Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Reformed Political Party win the second most seats in the 202 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in Jun 15 $3 −$97 -2831%
Will Ameriprise Financial (AMP) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $792 −$792 -100%
Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parlia Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Jun 15 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the Party for the Animals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the Socialist Party win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherl Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Hyatt Hotels (H) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18 Jun 15 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the Christian Union win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the Denk win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parlia Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Volt Netherlands win the second most seats in the 2025 Nether Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Jun 15 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the Reformed Political Party win the most seats in the 2025 Nethe Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Jun 15 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Dec 28 $403 −$137 -34%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? Dec 24 $1,708 +$60 +4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Dec 19 $1,115,500 +$27,000 +2%
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 10 $3,696 −$3,250 -88%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition Dec 10 $1,595 +$26 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 168d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 13¢ $138 168d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $21 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $7 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $8 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $10 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $13 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $16 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $20 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $25 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $31 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $38 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $48 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $60 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $75 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $94 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $117 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $199 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 173d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 174d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $199 174d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 175d
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 175d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 177d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 177d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 14¢ $83 177d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 178d
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 88¢ $3,425 186d
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition BUY No 100¢ $81 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records