Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9256…d93a crypto 622 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$866 (+2%) realized +$866 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%322W / 300L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$1,073
sports 12% −$607
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.5% -9.9% 51% 41% -9.1%
≤30d 47 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 43% -16.2%
≤90d 288 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 44% -17.7%
all 622 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 42% -7.6%
10% -23.9% 32% -16.5%
15% -31.3% 23% -24.5%
20% -38.0% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$30 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$866
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses322 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)622 / 622
History coverage191d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 622 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $89 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$27 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$11 -48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$26 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$38 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$38 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$29 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$18 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$22 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$14 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$19 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$33 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $23 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $91 −$90 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $462 −$452 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $608 −$253 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 13 $11 −$4 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $14 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $83 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $82 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $23 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $23 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $56 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $57 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $67 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $61 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $53 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $64 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $64 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $73 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $35 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $35 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $29 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1496 history records