Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9259…aea5 crypto 651 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,345 (-3%) realized −$3,345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%322W / 329L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,978
world 0% −$428
sports 0% −$175
other 0% −$77
politics 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +22.5% +10.8% 32% 32% -32.8%
≤30d 647 -11.1% -19.5% 49% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 651 -10.6% -19.1% 49% 40% -13.0%
all 651 -10.6% -19.1% 49% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 40% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 32% -21.3%
15% -33.9% 26% -28.9%
20% -40.4% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$105 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses322 / 329
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)651 / 651
History coverage42d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 651 Trades
no open positions (218 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$146 +461%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $120 +$246 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $119 +$105 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $143 −$38 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $116 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$17 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$207 +1298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$136 +431%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$23 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$124 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $87 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $563 −$550 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $117 −$100 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $428 −$428 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $144 −$75 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $254 +$52 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $606 −$31 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$21 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $783 −$750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $400 −$388 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $225 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $179 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1634 history records