Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9259…2074 sports 639 markets active 3h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-4%) realized −$87 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%429W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$108
finance 15% +$17
crypto 15% −$4
other 9% +$3
weather 3% −$16
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 57% -14.2%
≤30d 200 -4.0% -13.1% 64% 54% -14.4%
≤90d 378 -1.8% -11.1% 63% 51% -14.0%
all 637 -0.4% -9.8% 67% 53% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 53% -13.6%
10% -18.5% 34% -21.9%
15% -26.3% 22% -29.4%
20% -33.6% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses429 / 208
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)637 / 639
History coverage96d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 50¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 55¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$3 -75%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$8 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $9 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $1 +$2 +180%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 $0 -40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -87%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$1 +123%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $2 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 100¢ $7 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 93¢ $6 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $4 37h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 88¢ $3 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 80¢ $1 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $4 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 58¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 87¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.36 · official $7.24 (match) · 1531 history records