trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 42% | 21% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.5% | 21% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.8% | 17% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -29.4% | 4% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $151 | $151 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $51 | $51 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat? | No | 91¢ | 43¢ | $1 | $1 | −$1 (-53%) |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? | Yes | 93¢ | 20¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 10 | $288 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | May 10 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 10 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 15 | $211 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 15 | $412 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 15 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | Feb 16 | $446 | $0 | -0% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Cos | Feb 14 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? | Jan 24 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? | Jan 24 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? | Jan 24 | $6 | +$1 | +24% |
| BNB Up or Down on October 20? | Oct 20 | $2 | −$2 | -85% |
| MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 5-11? | Sep 02 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Congressman joins the America Party before August? | Aug 01 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the new Pope tweet from his personal account this month? | Jul 07 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| New Trump tariffs by Friday? | May 14 | $2 | $0 | +24% |
| Will New Jersey declare a state of emergency over mystery drones? | Jan 15 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will AS Roma win the Serie A? | Dec 18 | $863 | −$1 | -0% |
| Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ? | Dec 18 | $16 | −$8 | -51% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | Oct 15 | $15 | $0 | -3% |
| 100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | Oct 04 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Sep 22 | $7 | +$3 | +42% |
| Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m? | Sep 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | Aug 06 | $126 | $0 | -0% |