Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9263…489b other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$3
world 35% +$2
crypto 9% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 4% +$2
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.2%
all 51 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage479d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $19 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 21 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $18 $0 -1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Apr 01 $1 $0 +6%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $21 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $21 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $19 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $47 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $47 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $52 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $56 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $37 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $37 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $38 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records