Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9265…2cc0 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$26,668 (-11%) realized −$26,664 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate77%75W / 22L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,585per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3,199est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$1,128
14 days−$507
30 days−$37,941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$79,042
politics 37% +$50,713
other 0% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -17.1% -25.0% 68% 68% -31.6%
≤30d 85 +1.7% -8.0% 79% 73% -50.4%
≤90d 93 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 71% -19.7%
all 97 +0.5% -9.0% 77% 71% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 71% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 36% -27.3%
15% -25.7% 18% -34.3%
20% -33.0% 9% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$734 vs −$3,780 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$26,664
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses75 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,199
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage239d
Avg bet$2,585
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polmans Marc Polmans 77¢ 71¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $127 −$126 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $81 −$70 -88%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $101 +$27 +27%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $100 +$19 +18%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 17 $403 −$403 -100%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $402 +$65 +16%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $402 +$80 +20%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $351 +$51 +14%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $298 +$65 +22%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $302 +$78 +26%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $303 +$166 +55%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $302 +$88 +29%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $303 +$126 +42%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $301 +$36 +12%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $301 +$40 +13%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $301 +$56 +18%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $202 +$92 +46%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $202 +$73 +36%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $201 +$32 +16%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $201 +$30 +15%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 11 $151 +$52 +34%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 11 $152 +$94 +62%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $151 +$51 +34%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $151 −$151 -100%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 10 $151 +$43 +29%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $151 −$15 -10%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Alice Tubello Jun 09 $150 +$18 +12%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $151 +$49 +32%
Bratislava: Lukas Pokorny vs Alex Barrena Jun 09 $151 +$51 +34%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $151 +$22 +14%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 08 $151 +$61 +40%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $150 +$18 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 77¢ $50 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 67¢ $50 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 61¢ $127 20h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $112 20h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche SELL Sebastian Ofner 10¢ $10 20h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 77¢ $81 21h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 89¢ $100 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys BUY Toby Samuel 83¢ $101 27h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 100¢ $128 27h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $101 28h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Cosme de Ravel 84¢ $100 2d
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Guido Justo 85¢ $100 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 74¢ $101 2d
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 64¢ $101 2d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 75¢ $101 3d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 88¢ $100 3d
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 81¢ $101 3d
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 83¢ $101 3d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 88¢ $100 3d
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 83¢ $101 4d
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 85¢ $100 4d
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 85¢ $402 5d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 77¢ $403 5d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $402 5d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 86¢ $402 5d
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 83¢ $402 6d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 87¢ $351 6d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 82¢ $298 6d
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 79¢ $302 6d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva BUY Alicia Dudeney 64¢ $303 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.10 · official $46.10 (match) · 228 history records