Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9265…75ba crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,258 (-32%) realized −$2,258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$1,802
world 20% +$101
politics 5% +$271
economics 3% −$189
other 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-63.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.7% -38.2% 20% 20% -23.2%
≤30d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% -4.0%
≤90d 39 -64.1% -67.6% 18% 18% -40.0%
all 58 -59.5% -63.4% 19% 17% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.4% 17% -30.3%
10% -66.9% 16% -37.0%
15% -70.1% 9% -43.1%
20% -73.0% 5% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$60 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage282d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 25 $192 −$112 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 25 $231 −$87 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $400 +$322 +80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 24 $442 −$244 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 24 $97 −$85 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $362 +$151 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $546 +$161 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $88 +$39 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 25 $121 −$113 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 25 $1,094 −$452 -41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 25 $1,192 −$1,143 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 12? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $21 +$3 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 06 $40 −$18 -45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 06 $13 −$4 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 06 $18 −$8 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 11? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 6? Apr 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 9? Apr 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9? Apr 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $108 +$60 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 5? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9? Apr 03 $9 −$8 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 7? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 01 $4 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 25 $154 +$51 +33%
Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $357 −$8 -2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 05 $427 −$26 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 04 $8 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $105 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 78¢ $388 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $333 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $159 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $155 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $94 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $397 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $287 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $81 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records