Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x9266…8f3c sports 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,777 (-11%) realized −$11,777 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%166W / 123L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$702est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,187
7 days+$1,067
14 days−$263
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$10,536
other 10% −$1,335
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +21.2% +9.7% 69% 67% +4.4%
≤30d 125 -1.5% -10.9% 60% 57% -11.0%
≤90d 201 -15.7% -23.7% 51% 49% -27.0%
all 289 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 55% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 55% -19.8%
10% -25.5% 46% -27.4%
15% -32.7% 33% -34.4%
20% -39.3% 22% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$317 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,777
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses166 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$702
Open positions0
Markets (closed)289 / 292
History coverage243d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 289 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $270 +$510 +189%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $250 +$21 +8%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $250 +$109 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $250 +$104 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $250 +$215 +86%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $277 +$76 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $508 −$210 -41%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $243 +$132 +54%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $257 +$78 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $271 +$44 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $236 +$25 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $277 +$83 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $297 −$296 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $446 −$441 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $120 −$118 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $149 −$31 -21%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $132 +$88 +67%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $141 +$161 +114%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $79 −$44 -56%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton Jun 23 $104 −$25 -24%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $100 +$93 +93%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 23 $100 +$70 +70%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $143 +$91 +64%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $209 +$22 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $112 +$108 +97%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $129 −$128 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $121 +$156 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $226 +$76 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $112 +$89 +79%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $100 −$22 -22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $99 +$163 +164%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $191 +$41 +21%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $166 +$22 +13%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $113 −$112 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $116 −$114 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $86 +$30 +35%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $229 −$227 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $211 +$22 +11%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $115 −$113 -99%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $75 −$74 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $417 −$197 -47%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $215 +$70 +33%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $200 +$9 +5%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $426 −$81 -19%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $248 −$245 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $305 −$48 -16%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $344 +$204 +59%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $199 −$196 -99%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $70 +$130 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $780 21m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 33¢ $15 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 34¢ $255 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $270 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 93¢ $9 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 92¢ $241 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic SELL Felix Balshaw 100¢ $359 5h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Felix Balshaw 68¢ $3 6h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Felix Balshaw 69¢ $20 6h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Felix Balshaw 69¢ $227 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $354 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 72¢ $13 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 70¢ $237 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $465 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 53¢ $13 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 53¢ $112 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 53¢ $125 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 100¢ $353 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 74¢ $15 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 78¢ $262 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $271 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 96¢ $260 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Tristan Schoolkate 6¢ $27 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ $19 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ $228 28h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $375 28h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 64¢ $243 31h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic SELL Andres Santamarta 98¢ $335 31h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Andres Santamarta 76¢ $15 31h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Andres Santamarta 75¢ $242 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 870 history records