Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x926d…f416 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$370 (+4%) realized +$385 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%49W / 30L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days−$376
14 days+$156
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$342
politics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 44% -22.8%
≤30d 79 +14.8% +3.8% 62% 49% -5.8%
≤90d 79 +14.8% +3.8% 62% 49% -5.8%
all 79 +14.8% +3.8% 62% 49% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 49% -5.8%
10% -6.1% 42% -14.8%
15% -15.2% 27% -23.0%
20% -23.5% 20% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$64 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses49 / 30
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage15d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 50¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $101 +$90 +89%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $51 +$17 +34%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $46 −$33 -72%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $113 −$12 -11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$109 +107%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$65 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $163 −$108 -67%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $157 −$155 -99%
ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 12 $101 +$36 +36%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $59 +$7 +12%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$62 +164%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 +$64 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF kiseljak: Vladyslav Orlov vs Alen Mujakic Jun 12 $128 +$33 +26%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $100 +$28 +28%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 12 $86 +$14 +16%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $63 +$24 +38%
ITF Cuiaba: Giovana Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa vs Carolina Alves Jun 11 $56 +$6 +11%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $138 −$136 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic Jun 11 $136 +$57 +42%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Sofya Lansere vs Francesca Curmi Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 11 $200 +$9 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $102 +$120 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $96 +$60 +62%
ITF Nice: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Berta Bonardi Jun 10 $180 +$44 +24%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $59 −$22 -37%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $26 −$17 -63%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 +$64 +1237%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $20 +$16 +81%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$21 -21%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $202 −$67 -33%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $13 +$55 +413%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $48 +$34 +70%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $151 +$26 +18%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $303 −$303 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $34 −$29 -86%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $156 +$138 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $191 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 52¢ $101 4h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $68 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 74¢ $51 4d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL Miami Heretics 100¢ $17 4d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Miami Heretics 69¢ $12 4d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 24¢ $34 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL Boston Breach 100¢ $144 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 43¢ $12 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Boston Breach 69¢ $101 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $210 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 47¢ $102 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 4d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner SELL Ilbirs eSports 100¢ $166 4d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 60¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $54 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova SELL Anastasia Zakharova 21¢ $54 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 66¢ $62 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 59¢ $101 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY Ignite 60¢ $56 5d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY Ignite 60¢ $101 5d
ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira SELL Nicolas Oliveira 100¢ $137 5d
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ BUY Outlast 16¢ $1 5d
ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 73¢ $101 5d
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ BUY Outlast 20¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.20 · official $34.23 · 185 history records