Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x926e…f4f6
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$30 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage548d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $101 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $126 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $264 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 +$7 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $13 +$6 +48%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 +$11 +146%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-02? Apr 06 $14 +$8 +55%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $16 +$8 +50%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 06 $28 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Flyers Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $36 +$15 +43%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Mar 05 $105 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 13 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $6 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 52% −$15
other 31% −$9
sports 7% −$7
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
world 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 39h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 42h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $8 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 9d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -23.4%
≤30d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 12% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 41 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 20% -10.2%
all 51 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 18% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 18% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 16% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 16% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.26 · official $38.26 (match) · 210 history records