Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x9270…5f5c crypto 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$833 (+13%) realized +$833 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%190W / 173L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$86
14 days−$43
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 53% +3.2%
≤30d 139 +9.3% -1.1% 52% 52% -2.9%
≤90d 363 +15.8% +4.8% 52% 52% -0.2%
all 363 +15.8% +4.8% 52% 52% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 52% -0.2%
10% -5.2% 52% -9.7%
15% -14.4% 52% -18.5%
20% -22.8% 52% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$833
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses190 / 173
Open positions0
Markets (closed)363 / 362
History coverage82d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 363 Trades
no open positions (173 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$39 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$43 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$35 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$11 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$51 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$36 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$43 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$34 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$66 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$40 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$36 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$35 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $37 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $29 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 562 history records