Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x9270…f8b3
world · 31 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage298d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 0 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 +$8 +126%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 20 $42 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% +$8
sports 9% +$1
politics 8% −$1
other 6% +$1
culture 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $55 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $55 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $7 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $2 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $2 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $48 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $49 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $38 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $6 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $6 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $50 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $1 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $27 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $17 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $45 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 50% 12% -7.9%
≤30d 10 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 10% -8.1%
≤90d 10 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 10% -8.1%
all 31 +1.5% -8.1% 32% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -8.5%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.2%
15% -24.9% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records