Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9271…a28a sports 1111 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,106 (-5%) realized −$5,088 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%439W / 658L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$747est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$97
14 days+$1,464
30 days−$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$834
other 13% −$4,450
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +21.2% +9.7% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤30d 89 +16.5% +5.4% 47% 47% -20.1%
≤90d 453 -7.0% -15.8% 40% 40% -18.6%
all 1097 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 40% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -14.2%
10% -23.5% 40% -22.4%
15% -30.9% 39% -29.9%
20% -37.7% 38% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$85 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$5,088
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses439 / 658
Est. fees paid−$747
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1097 / 1111
History coverage150d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1097 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $181 $182 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 55¢ 50¢ $151 $136 −$15 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+10%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $29 $34 +$6 (+19%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $5 $1 −$5 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $142 −$140 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $246 −$242 -98%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $212 +$137 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $142 +$168 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $88 +$100 +114%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $45 +$46 +101%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $259 −$255 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $35 +$58 +165%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $24 +$69 +291%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $41 +$52 +129%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $28 +$62 +216%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 16 $88 −$86 -99%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 15 $265 +$219 +83%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $142 −$140 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $57 +$86 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $213 +$298 +140%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $89 +$213 +238%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $142 +$138 +97%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $127 +$102 +80%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $5 +$8 +165%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $141 +$155 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $96 −$94 -98%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $147 +$149 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $315 +$433 +137%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Monaco (-3.5) Jun 08 $94 +$84 +90%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $14 +$29 +206%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $29 +$64 +216%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $30 +$58 +197%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $10 +$22 +216%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $29 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $88 +$55 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $30 +$19 +63%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $118 −$116 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $70 +$56 +79%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 04 $88 +$153 +172%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $148 +$172 +117%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $70 −$70 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $119 −$116 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $29 +$49 +165%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $142 +$112 +79%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $29 +$32 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $142 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $42 19h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $38 28h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $142 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $75 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 34h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 55¢ $94 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 55¢ $59 46h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 42¢ $40 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $39 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $118 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $89 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $142 3d
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 60¢ $94 3d
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 60¢ $118 3d
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Mees Rottgering 36¢ $33 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $118 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $141 4d
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 49¢ $45 4d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $29 4d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $59 4d
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 53¢ $59 5d
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 54¢ $29 5d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 31¢ $28 5d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 25¢ $24 5d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.67 · official $553.68 (match) · 2452 history records