Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x9276…37a3
other · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$100 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$63 · open −$164
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,590
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)3 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 18 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $200 $137 −$63 (-31%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No 85¢ 98¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 71¢ 73¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 64¢ 65¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 91¢ 84¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $125 $69 −$56 (-45%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $59 $20 −$39 (-66%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$80 +709%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% +$41
politics 28% −$2
tech 27% −$220
world 8% −$1
weather 6% +$3
sports 1% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $50 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $100 58m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 8¢ $9 15h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $52 15h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 12¢ $52 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 20h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $100 20h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 19¢ $52 23h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 12¢ $78 23h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 26¢ $103 23h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $154 23h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market clos BUY No 85¢ $101 36h
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 36h
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 37h
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 92¢ $201 37h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market clos BUY Yes 12¢ $52 37h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos BUY Yes 17¢ $103 37h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 37h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 37h
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $100 37h
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+144.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +169.7% +144.0% 33% 33% +192.1%
≤30d 3 +169.7% +144.0% 33% 33% +192.1%
≤90d 3 +169.7% +144.0% 33% 33% +192.1%
all 3 +169.7% +144.0% 33% 33% +192.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +144.0% 33% +192.1%
10% +120.7% 33% +164.2%
15% +99.4% 33% +138.6%
20% +79.8% 33% +115.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,590.35 · official $1,589.93 (match) · 32 history records