Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9277…4327 crypto 1276 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$188 (+0%) realized +$114 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate91%1164W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days−$378
30 days−$1,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$644
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.4% -2.0% 92% 62% -7.9%
≤30d 836 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 43% -11.1%
≤90d 1275 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 41% -10.1%
all 1275 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 41% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -18.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$108 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1164 / 111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1275 / 1276
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 0¢ 90¢ $0 $74 +$74 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $107 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$17 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $114 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $85 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $85 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $78 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $23 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $97 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $94 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $49 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $44 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $91 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $81 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $78 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $22 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $17 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $24 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $24 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.32 · official $41.11 · 3500 history records