Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9277…f1e5 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-3%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%59W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$272
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 75% 30% -23.2%
≤30d 69 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 32% -20.0%
≤90d 81 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 36% -13.9%
all 81 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 36% -13.9%
10% -21.2% 20% -22.1%
15% -28.8% 9% -29.6%
20% -35.8% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$40 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses59 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage30d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$5 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $59 −$32 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$89 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $99 −$44 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $103 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 24 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 24 $101 +$13 +13%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $41 −$24 -58%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 23 $11 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 23 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 23 $30 +$4 +14%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 23 $10 +$23 +225%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 23 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 23 $132 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $60 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 23 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 23 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $101 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $71 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $70 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $70 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $57 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $49 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $45 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $38 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $58 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records