Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

92 0x9277…c2d7 other 23 markets active 9h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$54 (+20%) realized +$52 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day7.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$22

7 days+$44

14 days+$44

30 days+$44

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+26.3%	+14.3%	80%	70%	+21.6%
≤30d	20	+12.5%	+1.8%	60%	55%	+6.7%
≤90d	20	+12.5%	+1.8%	60%	55%	+6.7%
all	20	+12.5%	+1.8%	60%	55%	+6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.8%	55%	+6.7%
10%	-7.9%	30%	-3.5%
15%	-16.8%	20%	-12.8%
20%	-25.0%	20%	-21.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +26% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage11d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day7.4

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$6	$7	+$1 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	39¢	42¢	$6	$6	+$1 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	88¢	92¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Jun 17	$12	+$2	+16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 17	$10	+$1	+12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$20	+$4	+21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$10	+$10	+96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$10	+$2	+17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$33	+$24	+74%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$18	−$2	-12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$1	$0	+10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$3	$0	-6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Jun 10	$9	+$2	+24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 10	$8	−$3	-39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$31	−$1	-3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$14	−$1	-5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$15	+$3	+20%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main	Jun 07	$9	+$12	+139%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jun 07	$10	−$6	-64%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai	Jun 07	$4	−$2	-42%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli	Jun 07	$10	−$10	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)	Jun 06	$10	+$6	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$6	8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL Yes	93¢	$2	11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL Yes	93¢	$0	11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL Yes	93¢	$0	11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	42¢	$8	12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$6	12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	13¢	$3	12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	19¢	$6	18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	41¢	$3	18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL No	83¢	$3	18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	77¢	$2	21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	27¢	$2	21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	36¢	$6	21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1	28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	33¢	$1	28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY No	70¢	$10	28h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL Yes	57¢	$12	28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	31¢	$4	33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	21¢	$4	33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$7	33h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	73¢	$16	33h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	44¢	$3	2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY No	85¢	$10	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	6¢	$3	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.16 · official $19.16 (match) · 88 history records