Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9277…579d crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$356 (-5%) realized +$143 · open −$499
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%68W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$799
7 days−$799
14 days−$799
30 days−$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,471
other 10% −$108
sports 2% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -27.0% -33.9% 45% 41% -29.7%
≤30d 25 -25.8% -32.9% 48% 44% -29.7%
≤90d 107 -11.8% -20.2% 64% 49% -21.9%
all 107 -11.8% -20.2% 64% 49% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 49% -21.9%
10% -27.9% 33% -29.4%
15% -34.8% 16% -36.2%
20% -41.2% 11% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$57 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$499
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses68 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage60d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 30 $77 +$97 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $75 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $67 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $605 −$605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $304 +$241 +79%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $500 −$349 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $205 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $713 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $152 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $152 −$147 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $104 +$92 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 23 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 23 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 23 $17 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 23 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 23 $38 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $78 −$62 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 03 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 03 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 03 $19 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 03 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 02 $48 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 02 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 02 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 02 $17 +$20 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 02 $16 +$5 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $147 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $77 6m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $509 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $605 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $42 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $148 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $224 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $544 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 13¢ $152 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $500 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $247 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $205 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $712 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $713 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $167 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $152 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $152 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $21 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.66 (match) · 219 history records