Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
92 0x9277…3a48 crypto 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+1%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate93%239W / 18L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$4
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +3.4% -6.4% 83% 67% -9.6%
≤30d 257 +2.6% -7.2% 93% 28% -8.4%
≤90d 257 +2.6% -7.2% 93% 28% -8.4%
all 257 +2.6% -7.2% 93% 28% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 28% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 18% -17.2%
15% -24.2% 5% -25.2%
20% -31.6% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$43 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses239 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage13d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $37 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 576 history records