Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9278…12bc sports 10 markets active 23h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-21%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +116% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip
Net edge+96%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$52
crypto 11% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+95.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +116.3% +95.7% 50% 50% -32.4%
≤30d 10 +116.3% +95.7% 50% 50% -32.4%
≤90d 10 +116.3% +95.7% 50% 50% -32.4%
all 10 +116.3% +95.7% 50% 50% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +95.7% 50% -32.4%
10% +77.0% 40% -38.9%
15% +59.9% 30% -44.8%
20% +44.2% 30% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +116% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$33 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 17 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$23 -70%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $24 −$23 -95%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$25 +1426%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $43 +$35 +81%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $34 +$8 +24%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $19 +$16 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY No 57¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 23h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $24 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $31 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $26 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 76¢ $77 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 53¢ $43 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 78¢ $34 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY No 52¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records