Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9279…ccf1 politics 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,826 (-1%) realized −$1,826 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate19%35W / 150L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,600per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$27
14 days−$39
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$154
other 39% +$45
sports 12% −$1,588
culture 2% −$9
economics 1% −$4
world 1% −$39
finance 1% −$143
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 -9.1% -17.7% 4% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 117 -14.9% -23.0% 3% 2% -10.5%
all 185 -3.9% -13.1% 19% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -10.1%
10% -21.4% 8% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 7% -26.6%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,929) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$1,826
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses35 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,600
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $167 $167 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $156 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $4,547 −$5 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $577 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $355 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7,103 −$10 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,023 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,035 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,315 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,547 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,370 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6,616 −$7 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,931 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $555 +$2 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $5,832 −$10 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,951 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,799 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,508 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $6,313 −$7 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,617 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $8,482 −$9 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3,725 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $3,649 −$6 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $709 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 26 $70 +$56 +79%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $41 +$37 +90%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $344 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $167 4h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $428 9h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $429 11h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $339 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $339 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $469 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $470 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $485 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $575 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $577 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $375 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $376 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $367 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $368 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $308 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $309 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $354 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $355 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,003 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $951 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $952 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,136 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.10 · official $323.10 (match) · 693 history records