Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927c…6633 sports 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42,933 (+9%) realized +$52,445 · open −$9,512
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%55W / 46L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$4,670per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Fees−$2,058est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31,535
7 days+$50,247
14 days+$39,577
30 days+$39,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$10,649
other 42% +$13,674
world 7% +$4,599
crypto 0% +$1,088
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +3.5% -6.4% 62% 48% +1.8%
≤30d 101 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 43% -1.8%
≤90d 101 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 43% -1.8%
all 101 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 43% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 43% -1.8%
10% -18.7% 37% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 31% -19.8%
20% -33.8% 20% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,045 vs −$1,586 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,700
Realized+$52,445
Unrealized−$9,512
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses55 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2,058
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4,670
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 69¢ 100¢ $1,168 $1,687 +$519 (+44%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 0¢ $10,044 $13 −$10,031 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,134 −$148 -13%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $3,028 −$2,516 -83%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $19,823 +$8,097 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7,292 −$7,267 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $26,228 +$1,331 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,090 −$89 -8%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $28,789 +$9,184 +32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $1,259 +$1,000 +79%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $2,435 +$1,065 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,073 −$4,055 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $237 +$228 +96%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $350 −$342 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $1,798 +$7,087 +394%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $1,699 −$1,685 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vitaliy Sachko vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 22 $2,800 +$350 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $1,048 +$37 +4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20,079 +$3,171 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,181 +$3,829 +74%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5,487 −$5,487 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38,449 +$4,921 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,184 +$1,062 +90%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $740 +$816 +110%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,508 −$2,508 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32,900 +$4,599 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,725 +$7,841 +210%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2,415 +$348 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $4,460 +$2,259 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $346 −$337 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,390 −$1,365 -98%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $1,491 +$109 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $53,804 +$3,510 +6%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $565 −$561 -99%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,342 +$458 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,751 +$3,149 +114%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $30,411 +$7,669 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,549 −$2,503 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2,598 −$926 -36%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40,414 +$1,909 +5%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $3,108 +$592 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13,964 +$508 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,377 +$2,023 +147%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $2,812 +$1,038 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4,158 +$1,492 +36%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,142 +$1,008 +47%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,080 +$127 +6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,723 +$577 +34%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $2,009 −$2,008 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $195 15m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $4,330 29m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $7 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $33 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $4 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $2 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $10 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $10 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $11 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $11 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $9 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $2 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $1 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $9 58m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $7 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $22 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $38 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $4 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $22 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $11 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $11 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $33 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $345 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $43 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $218 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $11 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $14 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $71 59m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $206 59m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 59¢ $987 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,700.31 · official $1,700.31 (match) · 1220 history records