Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
92 0x927d…a85f crypto 66 markets active 4d ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-0%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%60W / 6L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$32
14 days+$35
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$42
crypto 29% −$205
other 6% +$33
economics 4% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 50% +2.2%
≤30d 4 +7.5% -2.8% 100% 25% -2.6%
≤90d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 14% -6.9%
all 66 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$573) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$55 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses60 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage216d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $124 +$26 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $123 +$7 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $115 +$3 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $116 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 23 $608 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 18 $216 +$6 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 26 $775 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $396 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $591 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $585 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 12 $3,485 +$6 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $1,756 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $2,291 +$6 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $4,496 +$5 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $579 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $1,085 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $1,153 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $580 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $3,414 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 04 $572 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $575 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 03 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $276 −$275 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $274 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $276 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $267 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $264 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $262 +$3 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 25 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? Dec 14 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $258 +$3 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 10 $724 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $257 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $81 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $173 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $243 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 03 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $235 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29? Nov 30 $235 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $233 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $230 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $124 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $123 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $118 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $72 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $118 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $117 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $117 49d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $48 56d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 56d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $68 62d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $69 62d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $117 81d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 82d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $115 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $115 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $112 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $111 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $107 95d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $101 101d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $105 107d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $78 110d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 110d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $205 112d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $204 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records