Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927e…cd69 sports 668 markets active 14h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,480 (-33%) realized −$1,480 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%432W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$121
14 days−$82
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$138
politics 23% −$1,014
other 6% −$104
world 5% −$215
economics 0% −$20
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 68% -30.4%
≤30d 146 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 66% -19.8%
≤90d 657 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 64% -16.4%
all 668 -4.6% -13.6% 65% 63% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 63% -39.8%
10% -21.9% 48% -45.6%
15% -29.5% 32% -50.8%
20% -36.4% 19% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,480
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses432 / 236
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)668 / 668
History coverage98d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 668 Trades
no open positions (235 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $10 +$15 +146%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 13h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $10 15h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 89¢ $5 16h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 87¢ $10 17h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 40¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $96 2d
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 77¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 81¢ $10 2d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 84¢ $10 3d
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 81¢ $5 3d
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 68¢ $5 3d
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 75¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 46¢ $5 3d
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 66¢ $10 3d
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 77¢ $10 3d
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 86¢ $20 3d
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 81¢ $10 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 86¢ $10 3d
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 85¢ $5 3d
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 89¢ $10 4d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 29¢ $5 4d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 70¢ $5 4d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 56¢ $10 4d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 79¢ $10 4d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 90¢ $10 4d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 55¢ $10 4d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1111 history records