Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927f…5069 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 69L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$17
world 35% −$5
politics 14% +$6
sports 10% +$1
finance 3% +$14
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 -1.0% -10.5% 18% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 28% 2% -9.6%
all 117 -1.6% -10.9% 41% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage478d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $167 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $34 −$2 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $169 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $170 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $73 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $166 +$4 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $65 −$4 -6%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $188 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $142 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $171 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $96 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $518 +$15 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $165 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $321 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $120 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $229 −$8 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $325 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $30 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $328 +$14 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $15 −$3 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $79 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $162 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $149 −$2 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $151 +$1 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $1,197 −$15 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $89 −$2 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,107 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $999 +$7 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jan 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $163 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $167 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $32 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $34 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $169 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $169 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $12 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $12 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $97 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $89 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $92 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $76 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $170 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $80 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $90 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $170 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $24 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $73 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 454 history records