Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x927f…6d4a other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$63
world 30% +$147
politics 18% −$48
crypto 4% −$55
economics 2% +$1
sports 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 47% -15.4%
≤30d 15 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 47% -15.4%
≤90d 16 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 50% -11.9%
all 29 -1.7% -11.0% 52% 34% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 34% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 31% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 21% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)29 / 38
History coverage118d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 82¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $86 +$9 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$36 -89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $79 +$21 +27%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $100 −$22 -22%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 13 $25 +$13 +51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jun 13 $169 +$17 +10%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 23 $101 +$28 +28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 06 $20 −$1 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 06 $35 +$1 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $112 +$26 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $63 −$55 -88%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$68 +339%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union a Feb 25 $3 $0 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $20 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $25 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 56¢ $39 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $8 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $10 40h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $78 40h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $90 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $10 40h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.87 · official $296.87 (match) · 251 history records