Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9281…de84 crypto 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-11%) realized −$95 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%103W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$58
other 16% +$3
sports 10% −$47
world 0% −$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -23.2% -30.5% 32% 32% -20.8%
≤30d 57 -24.8% -32.0% 32% 30% -23.4%
≤90d 71 -37.9% -43.8% 27% 25% -32.9%
all 259 -19.5% -27.1% 40% 36% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 36% -22.2%
10% -34.1% 31% -29.7%
15% -40.5% 25% -36.5%
20% -46.3% 21% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses103 / 156
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)259 / 261
History coverage154d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+36%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 +$20 +298%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $6 +$6 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +142%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +37%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$7 +234%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $2 +$6 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 51m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $3 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $10 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 77¢ $14 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 45h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.67 · official $10.67 (match) · 579 history records