Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9281…830c crypto 338 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,767 (-1%) realized −$1,781 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate63%210W / 125L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$190
14 days−$1,593
30 days−$2,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$2,794
other 8% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.3% +5.2% 86% 71% +4.4%
≤30d 251 -10.5% -19.0% 61% 24% -11.5%
≤90d 335 -9.7% -18.3% 63% 22% -11.6%
all 335 -9.7% -18.3% 63% 22% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 22% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 15% -20.1%
15% -33.2% 12% -27.8%
20% -39.8% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$71 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$1,781
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses210 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)335 / 338
History coverage32d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $254 $267 +$13 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $224 $229 +$4 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $345 +$52 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $284 +$47 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $252 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $243 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $184 −$179 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $308 −$285 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $570 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $672 +$97 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $237 −$139 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $354 −$119 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $313 −$245 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $378 +$348 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1,263 +$242 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $716 −$200 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1,231 +$165 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $228 +$296 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $832 −$603 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $662 −$636 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2,055 +$762 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1,330 −$1,300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1,351 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1,303 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1,301 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $1,204 +$54 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $344 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1,251 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1,198 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1,251 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1,201 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1,203 +$39 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $86 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $87 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $256 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $397 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $345 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $331 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $284 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $284 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $252 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $241 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $256 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $184 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $186 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $143 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $143 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.72 · official $499.72 (match) · 1161 history records