Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9282…cf25 weather 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-2%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$2
other 16% −$1
world 16% −$2
economics 10% −$1
weather 7% −$36
sports 5% +$10
crypto 3% −$17
tech 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.4% -28.9% 43% 43% -14.3%
≤30d 7 -21.4% -28.9% 43% 43% -14.3%
≤90d 14 -37.5% -43.4% 36% 36% -22.1%
all 39 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 23% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 23% -12.3%
10% -24.3% 23% -20.7%
15% -31.6% 21% -28.4%
20% -38.3% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage454d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $354 $353 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$7 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$12 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$13 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13? May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? May 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? May 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4? May 06 $25 +$16 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 1? May 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $258 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Nov 12 $29 +$10 +35%
Pistons vs. 76ers Nov 10 $19 +$11 +59%
Stars vs. Predators Nov 09 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Nov 06 $6 +$10 +186%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October? Nov 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 04 $45 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Sep 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $15 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 21 $4 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 18 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $5 $0 -4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 25 $20 −$19 -95%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Mar 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 20 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $354 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $361 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $362 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $17 45h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $22 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY No 54¢ $18 7d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $26 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 35d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? BUY No 66¢ $14 36d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $12 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 42d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4? BUY No 59¢ $25 44d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 47d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $251 162d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $251 162d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 162d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 163d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $251 163d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $252 163d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 163d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 163d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $257 163d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $258 163d
Timberwolves vs. Jazz BUY Timberwolves 74¢ $29 218d
Pistons vs. 76ers BUY Pistons 63¢ $19 219d
Stars vs. Predators BUY Stars 60¢ $12 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.48 · official $353.48 (match) · 86 history records