Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9283…af72 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$45
crypto 23% −$8
sports 17% +$52
other 10% +$11
tech 5% +$2
politics 4% −$12
finance 1% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 50% -5.8%
≤30d 6 +4.6% -5.3% 83% 50% -1.2%
≤90d 9 -7.7% -16.5% 78% 33% -8.4%
all 54 -6.2% -15.1% 57% 13% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 13% -8.3%
10% -23.3% 6% -17.1%
15% -30.7% 4% -25.1%
20% -37.5% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage483d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Korea Republic 93¢ 92¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 18 $34 −$24 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$22 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +48%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 15 $158 +$4 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? May 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? May 27 $168 +$32 +19%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $180 −$82 -46%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 23 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 23 $302 +$3 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $283 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $17 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $298 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $196 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 26 $23 +$4 +18%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Feb 26 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 26 $131 +$4 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Feb 26 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Feb 26 $30 +$3 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Feb 26 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $50 +$13 +27%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 03 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 11 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800.00 by March 31? Mar 11 $9 +$20 +223%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 08 $20 −$6 -32%
Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? Mar 07 $20 $0 -2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 07 $10 −$1 -12%
Gold missing from Fort Knox? Mar 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 07 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Mar 05 $153 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 03 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 03 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Mar 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $28 $0 +2%
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $166 −$1 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Feb 28 $97 +$4 +5%
Raptors vs. Pacers Feb 28 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus Feb 27 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2025? Feb 27 $3 $0 +9%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Feb 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Feb 27 $50 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Feb 25 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) AND Spread: Canada (-3.5) AND Spread: Mexico (- BUY 75¢ $33 1h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 93¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $34 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 97¢ $158 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 22d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $98 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $126 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 87d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $128 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $20 87d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 87d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $302 94d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 100¢ $284 94d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 94d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $283 96d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 96d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $300 110d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 110d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $196 110d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $102 110d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $196 112d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 112d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can BUY Yes 8¢ $3 441d
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian BUY Yes 91¢ $30 441d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.73 · official $165.73 · 127 history records