Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9285…359c world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-7%) realized −$87 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$20
14 days−$51
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$121
other 8% +$29
politics 6% +$1
finance 3% +$8
crypto 2% −$3
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.7% -68.0% 0% 0% -46.6%
≤30d 11 -16.5% -24.4% 36% 18% -19.0%
≤90d 41 -29.2% -35.9% 29% 24% -23.2%
all 54 -7.3% -16.2% 39% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 33% -17.8%
10% -24.2% 33% -25.7%
15% -31.5% 26% -32.9%
20% -38.2% 17% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 65
History coverage258d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-10%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 68¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+62%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 48¢ 60¢ $17 $22 +$4 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$7 -46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$4 -21%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 12 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $73 −$38 -53%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +112%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 06 $74 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $162 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $6 +$3 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$57 +547%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $29 −$28 -99%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 01 $7 $0 -6%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of April? Apr 30 $7 +$10 +144%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $71 +$31 +43%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of April? Apr 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $12 −$6 -51%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 11 $82 +$20 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $44 −$23 -52%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 03 $11 −$4 -38%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $560? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $570? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will UEFA ban or suspend Israel by October 31? Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $23 −$23 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025? Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 14 $31 +$9 +30%
Trump out as President before 2027? Mar 09 $17 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 04 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $16 −$2 -10%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Mar 01 $3 +$2 +71%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $6 −$2 -25%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Feb 27 $5 $0 +10%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 21¢ $4 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $20 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 43¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.80 · official $180.80 (match) · 421 history records