Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9288…be38 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-4%) realized −$78 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$33
14 days−$54
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$43
other 13% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +13.0% +2.3% 69% 69% -7.0%
≤30d 79 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 56% -14.1%
≤90d 79 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 56% -14.1%
all 79 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 56% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 56% -14.1%
10% -18.5% 54% -22.3%
15% -26.4% 47% -29.8%
20% -33.6% 39% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 35
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage23d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 76¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $34 +$17 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $64 −$26 -40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $37 +$26 +70%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$22 +143%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $57 −$42 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -96%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $32 +$24 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $105 +$48 +46%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $94 +$10 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $17 +$9 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $52 +$14 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$22 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $23 +$8 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $55 −$32 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $42 +$13 +30%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 +$21 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$19 +92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $75 −$73 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$18 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 +$17 +88%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $27 +$27 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 +$12 +126%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$17 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$16 +107%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +103%
Perricard vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $27 +$17 +64%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $55 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 99¢ $52 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 65¢ $34 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $38 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $64 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $37 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 18¢ $16 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $57 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $1 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $56 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 75¢ $30 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $32 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $51 38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $152 38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $105 38h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $104 39h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 90¢ $94 39h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner SELL Türkiye 99¢ $26 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $69 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY Türkiye 65¢ $17 41h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $67 42h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $52 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 45h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.17 · official $53.17 (match) · 137 history records