Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x928c…728a other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-5%) realized −$4 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$1
sports 28% −$1
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -49.3% -54.1% 17% 17% -15.5%
≤30d 6 -49.3% -54.1% 17% 17% -15.5%
≤90d 6 -49.3% -54.1% 17% 17% -15.5%
all 6 -49.3% -54.1% 17% 17% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.1% 17% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -58.5% 17% -23.6%
15% -62.5% 17% -31.0%
20% -66.2% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 23¢ 30¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$13 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $2 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 17¢ $2 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 15¢ $1 10m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 30¢ $1 12m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 59¢ $1 14m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 42¢ $2 14m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 50¢ $12 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 5¢ $1 20m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $1 23m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.79 · official $8.79 (match) · 23 history records