Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x928d…c482 sports 623 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$667 (+5%) realized +$688 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%317W / 301L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$65
14 days−$60
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$26
other 30% +$495
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.3% -13.4% 34% 29% -5.5%
≤30d 187 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 30% -13.5%
≤90d 618 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 39% -6.0%
all 618 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 39% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 39% -6.0%
10% -15.0% 30% -15.0%
15% -23.2% 22% -23.2%
20% -30.8% 18% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$688
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses317 / 301
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions5
Markets (closed)618 / 623
History coverage75d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $99 $159 +$60 (+61%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 46¢ 50¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 39¢ $27 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 16¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 18¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$17 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $2 $0 -2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $134 +$44 +33%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $22 +$17 +74%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -99%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $130 +$29 +22%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $47 +$31 +66%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$15 -74%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $51 +$56 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $11 $0 -3%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $82 +$22 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $1 $0 -3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $47 +$7 +14%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $19 +$34 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$1 -8%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -14%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $42 +$91 +216%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $44 −$4 -8%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 −$5 -10%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -99%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $2 $0 +31%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $61 −$61 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $84 −$83 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $9 −$2 -16%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $16 +$8 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 14¢ $4 20m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 16¢ $5 20m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 15¢ $10 21m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 21¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $51 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $7 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $20 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $64 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $64 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $138 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson SELL Tatiana Prozorova 81¢ $2 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Tatiana Prozorova 82¢ $2 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 76¢ $2 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 77¢ $2 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys SELL Quentin Halys 69¢ $1 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 71¢ $1 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Lulu Sun 67¢ $1 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 57¢ $22 20h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $121 21h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY No 86¢ $7 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 59¢ $46 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 60¢ $48 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 43h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.60 · official $238.36 (match) · 3372 history records