Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x928f…5757 crypto 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$85 (-1%) realized −$87 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate75%301W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days−$41
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$32
politics 17% −$2
sports 11% −$29
other 10% −$23
world 8% +$3
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.8% -51.9% 25% 25% -61.0%
≤30d 43 -17.7% -25.5% 77% 7% -19.6%
≤90d 223 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 2% -11.2%
all 403 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -10.9%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses301 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)403 / 405
History coverage139d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 46¢ 78¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Tampa Bay Rays 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) Jun 06 $6 +$2 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 Jun 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-28? Jun 01 $18 +$1 +6%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1AM ET May 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $5 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $5 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $9 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 29h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 65¢ $4 7d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 52¢ $9 8d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 8d
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 71¢ $6 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $7 9d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 9d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $9 10d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 67¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? SELL No 1¢ $0 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? SELL No 1¢ $0 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY No 98¢ $19 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $14 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.96 · official $17.96 (match) · 1726 history records