Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x928f…b619 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$686 (+18%) realized +$767 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$587
7 days+$556
14 days+$556
30 days+$740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$740
other 32% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +32.3% +19.7% 56% 56% +10.6%
≤30d 11 +59.4% +44.2% 64% 64% +16.1%
≤90d 11 +59.4% +44.2% 64% 64% +16.1%
all 11 +59.4% +44.2% 64% 64% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.2% 64% +16.1%
10% +30.4% 64% +5.0%
15% +17.8% 64% -5.2%
20% +6.3% 64% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$277 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized+$767
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage17d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $674 $593 −$81 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 20 $745 −$738 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $273 −$268 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $406 +$335 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $90 +$186 +206%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$352 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $448 +$497 +111%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $249 +$295 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $108 +$178 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY 2¢ $41 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY 2¢ $154 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY 2¢ $103 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 2¢ $274 5h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 67¢ $1 19h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 67¢ $744 19h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $273 19h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 32¢ $90 43h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 54¢ $406 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $687 2d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $145 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $204 7d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $303 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $249 9d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Knicks 29¢ $49 12d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $45 12d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $9 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $3 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $108 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.85 · official $1,148.99 · 31 history records