Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9290…9104 other 70 markets active 2d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-37%) realized −$107 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%9W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$61
14 days−$99
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$3
crypto 35% −$69
sports 11% −$25
weather 11% −$26
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -47.6% -52.6% 14% 14% -59.6%
≤30d 64 -38.8% -44.7% 12% 12% -47.9%
≤90d 68 -39.2% -45.0% 13% 13% -46.6%
all 68 -39.2% -45.0% 13% 13% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 13% -46.6%
10% -50.3% 12% -51.7%
15% -55.1% 12% -56.4%
20% -59.5% 12% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses9 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage33d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 31? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$12 +313%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -85%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +181%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $4 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.61 · official $1.61 (match) · 190 history records